Who will win India’s EV battle?

The EV battle is hotting up in India. For now, Tata Motors leads the race, but who do we think will be the top EV sellers by 2030?

Ammar Master, Senior Manager, Asia Pacific Vehicle Forecasts

13 September 2022

On India’s Independence Day (15 August), homegrown player Mahindra & Mahindra Limited (Mahindra) made its intentions clearer regarding electric vehicles at an event in the UK. Not including the already-developed XUV400, the automaker will launch five e-SUVs under the XUV and BE (Born Electric) nameplates. The vehicles will be built on its INGLO EV platform and roll out over the next four to five years.

“By 2027, we expect that a quarter of the SUVs we sell will be electric,” declared Dr. Anish Shah, Managing Director & CEO, Mahindra Group.

For now, Tata Motors leads the EV space in India with the Nexon EV and Tigor EV. Not only that, but Tata plans to have 10 EV models in the market by around 2026.

“As early entrants, we have shaped the market and seen it grow with Nexon EV and Tigor EV. We have over 40,000 Tata EVs plying the roads,” Shailesh Chandra, Managing Director, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Ltd. and Tata Passenger Electric Mobility Ltd., said recently.

On the other hand, market leader Suzuki Group is not expected to have any EV models out before the end of 2025, and that will be a B-segment SUV. Moreover, we believe it will be the only Suzuki EV in the market before the OEM starts to add EV versions to some of its existing models from circa 2029 onwards.

Suzuki’s EV delay is mainly driven by a different approach that is more common amongst Japanese OEMs globally. They tend to focus first on developing hybrid technology before moving up the technology curve to battery electric vehicles.

Meanwhile, Hyundai plans to launch six EVs (including the currently available Kona) in the Indian market by 2028. Three of these models are expected to be built on its E-GMP (Electric Global Modular Platform) dedicated-BEV platform, while the rest are to be EV versions of its existing ICE vehicles. Plus, there is anticipation that Hyundai and its sister company Kia will launch a mass-market EV by 2024.

We predict EVs will account for almost 40% of Tata’s PV sales by the end of this decade. In comparison, we estimate EVs to account for about 20% of Mahindra’s PV sales by then. EV share is estimated to be 8% each for Suzuki’s and Hyundai’s PVs for the period under review.

By 2030, we think the top EV sellers in India will be Tata, Suzuki Group, Mahindra, Hyundai, and Kia.