LMC Automotive offers timely reporting of the latest data sets and estimates for several automotive markets around the world including, global car sales, the Chinese, Indian and ASEAN automotive markets and the Western European Diesel market.
December’s Global Light Vehicle (LV) selling rate fell for the fourth consecutive month to 82.7 mn units/year, despite flat YoY raw monthly registrations. The total sales figure for 2022, 81mn vehicles, came in slightly below that of 2021 (-0.6%) due to heightened market disruptions. China’s market experienced a sluggish end to 2022 with December raw sales down almost 12% YoY, largely attributed to increased disruption and uncertainty with the abrupt ending to the zero-Covid policy. North America and Europe both showed positive YoY growth for December, although both remained shy of their 2021 performances (-7% and -11% respectively).
The Western Europe PV selling rate rose from 12.2 mn units/year in November to 13.1 mn units/year in December. This was the strongest performance of 2022 and was supported by a rush to register BEVs and PHEVs in some markets before government incentives changed. In raw monthly registration terms, December 2022 was up 16.5% year-on-year (YoY), with 1 mn units registered. However, the overall 2022 sales volume was 4.1% lower than 2021, highlighting the intensity at which supply constraints have been hampering market performance.
With record BEV sales in Germany, UK, France, Norway and several other European car markets in December, ICE sales were negatively impacted, with diesel coming in at 14.4% of new car sales before any revisions due to late-reporting markets (which are highly unlikely to make a material difference). November’s diesel share is confirmed at 16.2%. There is reason to believe that the static diesel share seen from mid-2021 to mid-2022 has now moved into a new phase of decline although we should be wary of basing the early 2023 BEV sales outcome what happened in the distorted month of December 2022.
ASEAN Light Vehicle (LV) sales surged by 25% YoY in January-November 2022. However, the market saw a slowdown from October 2022. November sales slightly increased by 3% YoY, which was 2022’s lowest growth rate due to lower sales in Thailand and Vietnam and the slowdown in Indonesia.
In November, Light Vehicle (LV) wholesales were 2.32 mn units, which was a decrease of 8% year-on-year (YoY). At a component level, Passenger Vehicle (PV) wholesales dropped to 2.1 mn units (a decrease of 5% YoY) and Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) wholesales plunged by 27% YoY with the total volume falling to 0.2mn units. But thanks to the expanded output during the first ten months of 2022, LV year-to-date (YTD) sales to November totalled 24.2 mn in 2022 and were up by 6% YoY. Total LV production in November was 2.33 mn units, a decrease of 7% YoY and down by 8% month-on-month (MoM). With the impact of COVID-19 now spreading around the whole country, PV production decreased in November by 3% YoY and LCV production also dropped, by 36% YoY.