Insights

Welcome to the new LMC Automotive blog

Our expert analysts will share their views on the automotive industry, whether it be in relation to recent events, what they think is going to happen next in the market or just their thoughts on some exclusive data from our forecasts – it promises to offer invaluable insights into both the industry and our thinking.

No one wins

Jeff Schuster, President, Americas Operation & Global Vehicle Forecasting
22 June 2018

No one wins with vehicle tariffs!

Tariff talk is once again dominating the headlines, this time possibly with more bite than just bark. Aside from the broad-brush, large-dollar amounts specifically levied at China, which hit several industries, the auto industry is front and centre. Impact comes from the steel and aluminium tariffs now in place, and the threat of a 25% tariff on vehicles imported into the US (which, yes, includes those vehicles built in Canada and Mexico).

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Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicle Test ProcedureProduction disruption

Jonathon Poskitt, Director, Global Sales Forecast
21 June 2018

WLTP: Implications for the European market

September 2018 will see the Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP) applied to all new car registrations within the EU. Although there are allowances for a limited number of unsold vehicles in stock that were approved under the previous NEDC test, WLTP presents significant challenges for the industry to meet.

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SUV in Latin AmericaSoaring SUVs

Augusto Amorim, Senior Manager, Americas Vehicle Sales Forecasts
19 June 2018

Will SUVs ever outsell cars in Latin America?

Anyone familiar with the auto industry will tell you the same story: SUV sales are up, Car sales are down. But will the Car market realistically be eclipsed any time soon? Probably not, particularly in emerging markets.

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Automotive ThailandElectrified Thailand

Methin Changtor, Asia Powertrain Forecasting Manager
14 June 2018

The Thailand government has increasingly favoured policy designed to push the country, through an industry incentive programme, towards becoming a significant producer of electric vehicles of various types (xEVs). OEMs that locally produce xEVs along with at least one of 13 key components will receive an import tax exemption for machinery and corporate tax exemption.

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Automotive Forecasting - Mergers and acquisitionsMerge and Acquire

Alan Kang, Senior Market Analyst
12 June 2018

Merger and acquisition might become normal in China PV market

In order to generate cash to relaunch itself in the increasingly competitive China Personal Vehicle market, Chery Automobile has decided to sell a controlling stake for approximately 20 billion RMB ($3.1 billion). This follows the decision, in December 2017, to sell 25% of its stake in Qoros to Baoneng Group.

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South America Automotive Production ForecastIs the worst over?

Augusto Amorim, Senior Manager, Vehicle Sales Forecasts, The Americas
11 June 2018

Recent South American market turmoil to hamper pace of recovery

The Brazilian Light Vehicle market is notoriously unpredictable, as borne out by the sharp fluctuations seen over the last few years: sales plunged by 26% in 2015 and 20% in 2016, followed by a nascent recovery in 2017, when the market rallied by 9.5% year-on-year, on total sales of 2.18 million vehicles.

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Strategic Shift

Ammar Master, Senior Manager
11 June 2018

FCA has wisely shifted its strategy to establish the Jeep brand in India.

Fiat’s new models never came. After peaking at 23,000 units in 2009 – when Fiat first started selling the Linea and Punto in India – sales fell to less than 3,000 units last year. By the end of April this year, its tally had collapsed by 85% year-on-year to fewer than 200 vehicles.

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Slow and Steady

Al Bedwell, Director, Global Powertrain
5 June 2018

Investors in Europe’s BEV market need to take a long-term view

Electrified vehicle sales now represent around 6% of the European car market, but battery electric vehicles (BEVs) account for barely one-sixth of this total. Growth is steady but slow across the electrified sector, and particularly so in the plug-in sector – i.e. BEVs and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs). Ongoing post-EV incentive growth in Germany is really the only bright spot in BEV demand among Europe’s biggest markets so far this year.

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The Aftermath

Arthur Maher, Research Director
31 May 2018

The impact of Brexit on the UK Light Vehicle industry

In the still-uncertain aftermath of the UK referendum vote to leave the EU, successfully predicting the end state for the UK, with respect to its relationship with the rest of the bloc, remains impossible. For Light Vehicle producers in the UK, risks are therefore significant. Clarity will eventually manifest, but such is the conflicted state of the political landscape in the UK that this is unlikely to happen soon.

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Race for Autonomy

James Norris, Senior Analyst
29 May 2018

The race for autonomy between vehicle segments: who will win and why?

Much of the recent debate surrounding the automotive industry has focussed on the impending autonomous revolution in a broad sense. However, more specific issues have come out of the general discussion: will bus transport pioneer the paradigm shift to Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) on public roads? And, if so, will this rollout impact the development of autonomous Passenger Vehicles (APVs)?

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Tax Cuts

John Zeng, Director, China Forecasting
24 May 2015

Impact of import duty cut on Chinese vehicle market

The Chinese government announced on 22 May that the customs duty for CBUs will be reduced from 25% or 20% to 15% from 1 July this year, and that the duty for auto parts will be cut simultaneously to 6%.

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Previous blog posts

Walking a tightrope

Ammar Master, Senior Manager
15 May 2018

“How can you make money in India?” a client attending our LMC Automotive Asia-Pacific Conference in Shanghai asked me two years ago.

Find out

US vs Iran

Jonathon Poskitt, Director, Global Sales Forecast
11 May 2018

The decision by President Trump to pull the US out of the Iran nuclear agreement (JCPOA) and reinstate sanctions has led us to revise our Light Vehicle outlook for Iran.

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Change ahead!

Ake Lertsirirungsun
11 May 2018

With the recent election of Mahathir Mohamad as the new Prime Minister of Malaysia, some impact for the automotive industry is to be expected.

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Star performer

Ammar Master, Senior Manger
10 May 2018

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This article was published in the Hindu Business Line

Breaking the market

Ake Lertsirirungsun & Note Tumrasvin
9 May 2018

New Chinese entrants in Thailand and Indonesia – can they redress past failures?

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SUV takeover

Jeff Schuster, President, Americas Operation & Global Vehicle Forecasting
4 May 2018

The flight from Cars to … you guessed it … SUVs!

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Evolution or revolution?

Methin Changtor, Asia Powertrain Forecasting Manager
1 May 2018

The future of pure electric vehicles in Korea

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Defying gravity

Zita Zigan, Director, Global Commercial Vehicle Forecasting
26 April 2018

The evolution of Chinese Truck demand – Part 1: the short term

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Survive or die?

Pete Kelly, Managing Director
24 April 2018

Uber is an extraordinary company, but can it survive?

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Will the marriage last?

John Zeng, Director, China Forecasting
20 April 2018

The impact of China lifting foreign ownership limits on the auto sector

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Powertrain mix

Kevin Riddell, Senior Manager, Americas Powertrain Forecast
19 April 2018

CAFE/CO2 requirements set to change in the US

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“car biz is hell”

Jeff Schuster, President, Americas Operation and Global Vehicle Forecasting
17 April 2018

Is there finally a scratch in Tesla’s Teflon® image?

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Start small?

Pete Kelly, Managing Director
12 April 2018

Question to Autonomous Vehicle developers: why run tests in big cities first?

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A world full of pessimists

Jonathon Poskitt, Director, Global Sales Forecasting
10 April 2018

Although global Light Vehicle sales contracted in February – a fairly rare phenomenon this decade and, in this case, related to the timing of Chinese New Year – the general picture remains rosy.

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Decisions, decisions

Pete Kelly, Managing Director
5 April 2018

Making forecasts about automotive (or any) markets can be difficult at the best of times. Right now, we are faced with a complex array of new and evolving political-economic trends that only serve to highlight the difficulties of the task.

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25% tariffs on EU car imports to the US: biggest losers?

Justin Cox, Director, Global Production
3 April 2018

President Trump’s recent talk of imposing a 25% tariff on EU car imports to the US has certainly caused a stir. But while most reports tend to focus on the large exposure of Germany’s Big 3 Premium brands to the US market, it is important not to forget the potential plight of both Honda’s and FCA’s European operations should this trade ‘war of words’ develop into something more concrete.

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Moving in the wrong direction

Al Bedwell, Director, Global Powertrain
29 March 2018

As a central plank of EU policy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the region’s road transport sector, average new car CO2 emissions targets have been a huge driver of technical change as well as vehicle tax regimes for many years.

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19mn

diesel

Diesel cars will make up 18.7% of production in 2020

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11%

hybrid/EV

11% of the 100 million vehicles will be hybrid or electric in 2020

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101mn

2020

Over 100 million cars will be produced in 2020

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Press Releases

LMC Automotive & JD Power: US Monthly Retail Sales - May 2018

Mixed results expected for New Vehicle Sales in May, as Prices Rise but Sales Pace Falls

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LMC Automotive & JD Power: US Monthly Retail Sales - April 2018

New Vehicle Sales Pace to Decline Again Despite Higher Discounts

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LMC Automotive & JD Power: US Monthly Retail Sales - March 2018

New Vehicle Sales Pace in March to Post Gains for First Time in 2018

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LMC Automotive & JD Power: US Monthly Retail Sales - February 2018

New Vehicle Retail Sales Pace to Fall in February but Transaction Prices to Hit Record Levels

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650

co-ordinates

The Global Automotive Forecast provides geographic coordinates for vehicle plants worldwide

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3mn+

global CV

In 2023 the number of Medium and Heavy vehicles being produced will be over 3 million

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35mn

China

China will account for the largest number of Light Vehicle sales in 2025 with 31% of the total volume

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